| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Mississippi State | 17-34 | 1125.1 | -24.0 | 1101.1 | 22.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Jackson State | 38-20 | 1101.1 | +0.0 | 1101.1 | 9.1% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | App State | 38-22 | 1101.1 | +75.0 | 1176.1 | 8.8% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Louisiana Tech | 20-30 | 1176.1 | -25.7 | 1150.4 | 37.3% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Jacksonville State | 42-25 | 1150.4 | +70.4 | 1220.8 | 13.1% |
| 8 | Oct 9 2025 | W | Georgia Southern | 38-35 | 1220.8 | +71.3 | 1292.1 | 20.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Louisiana | 22-10 | 1292.1 | +61.9 | 1354.0 | 33.9% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | UL Monroe | 49-21 | 1354.0 | +24.4 | 1378.4 | 64.5% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Arkansas State | 27-21 | 1378.4 | +62.3 | 1440.7 | 33.3% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Texas State | 14-41 | 1440.7 | -61.1 | 1379.6 | 65.1% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | South Alabama | 35-42 | 1379.6 | -45.7 | 1333.9 | 61.4% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Troy | 18-28 | 1333.9 | -32.3 | 1301.6 | 30.9% |
| 19 | Dec 23 2025 | L | Western Kentucky | 16-27 | 1301.6 | -22.6 | 1279.0 | 26.6% |